Category Archives: Energy

Patchy Progress

Leave a Reply

In the twelve years that I have been writing this blog I have repeatedly argued that the switch to 100% renewables is necessary to combat the climate emergency, and with the right policy incentives it could be achieved relatively quickly and with multiple other benefits. I have consistently made the case that solar power would be the major power source for most of humanity.

The above graph shows how over the last decade solar power, and to a lesser extent wind power, have come to dominate new installations of electricity generation globally. The annual rate of solar installations rose from 32 GigaWatts in 2012 to 182 GW in 2021, more than a fivefold increase. Many commentators are predicting that by 2030 annual additions of solar power will be over 1 TW (ie 1,000 GW), again, more than a five-fold increase within a decade.

Global demand for energy continues to increase, almost totally driven by rising demand in the rapidly developing nations of the global south. Over this last decade we have seen the collapse of coal in Europe and North America, mainly displaced by wind and solar. Over the coming decade we will probably see the global decline of coal, followed by declines in gas and oil. There are many technical developments and changes happening in the world that point the way to a renewably powered future. Over the coming months I intend to write a number of blogs about some of these extraordinary and relatively poorly reported trends.

Progress is usually a very uneven process. Whether it is issues of economic equality and well functioning governance or the roll out of renewable energy technology some countries are making tremendous progress and others are not. Russia and Estonia have similar climates and potential to develop renewables and, until 1991, were part of the same system of governance. The difference between them now is staggering. Russia has one of the worst governments in the world and Estonia one of the best. This is reflected in everything from rates of literacy to life expectancy, from the elimination of poverty to their ability to peacefully co-operate with their neighbours. It is also reflected in their energy policies: Russia has virtually no renewable energy development while Estonia has just increased its’ 2030 target for renewable electricity, from 40% to 100%.

System Change

Leave a Reply

It is clear we need to stop burning fossil-fuels and switch to renewables, change from a wasteful, throw-away society to a pollution minimizing one, from a linear to a circular economy and from an extremely unequal world to a very much more equal one.

On this blog I have frequently talked with great enthusiasm about various renewable energy projects and technologies. They are very useful, but only if we can also rein-in total energy demand. Today Ember have just issued a damming report that shows global carbon emissions rising during the first half of 2021 despite a healthy increase in renewable energy generation. In the UK and globally the response to the pandemic has often used the slogan ‘Build Back Better’, but the reality is that we’ve been building back with the same or worse energy wasting projects, so although generation from renewables has increased, so too has electricity generation from coal. The main increase has been in China, and many politicians are keen to blame the Chinese, but this increase in emissions has been fuelled by the west’s insatiable demands for ever more Chinese made goods.

For decades we’ve been encouraged to recycle stuff and to make minor lifestyle changes that often only result in annual carbon reductions of a few grams, and those of us who care about such things have made efforts to live as ethically as we can. However it is all pretty pointless if the emissions of those millions of high emitters who simply do not care can carry on emitting. The American economic anthropologists Richard Wilk and Beatriz Barros have calculated the personal carbon emissions of many billionaires and found they each emitted over 1,000 tonnes, and some, such as Roman Abramovich emitted a staggering 33,859 tonnes. A report from Oxfam stated that the carbon emissions of the richest 1% are more than double of the emissions of the poorest half of humanity. To reduce emissions to avert climatic catastrophe we need everybody, every country and every industry to reduce emissions rapidly, and obviously the most important place to start is with the biggest emitters. That implies curtailing some industries from air travel to advertising, and limiting the rights and privileges of the most wealthy and wasteful people.

This week Extinction Rebellion are protesting again on the streets of London and many other cities. I support their actions and am with them in spirit, but not in person. Those who are on the streets protesting represent the many millions of people who cannot be with them, but support them in spirit.

Worldwide people are demanding system change in order to avert climate catastrophe. The Millichap Peace Fund have invited me to give a talk which will go out live via Zoom on 22nd September and be available online thereafter. I shall be asking the question ‘Is a better future possible?’ Given the scale of the many interrelated crises we face to even ask such a question can seem a travesty. In the talk I shall try and convey my vision of what system change might look like and how we might achieve it. This talk is a brief synopsis of a book I hope to have published by spring 2022. I’ll post more details about the talk and how to register to get the Zoom link nearer the time. There will be an opportunity to ask questions. More details on the talks and classes page.

Scaling-up Solar & Wind Power

Leave a Reply

The above graph shows the fifteen countries that generate the greatest percentage of their electricity from wind and solar power. These figures are for 2020. Wind and solar have doubled over the last five years, from generating 5% (1,083TWh) of the global electricity supply in 2015 to 10% (2,435TWh) in 2020. (For more on this see Hannah Broadbent’s article)

These increases in solar and wind power have been an impressive achievement and it is a trend that will only increase over the next few years as solar and wind technology improves, prices continue to fall and integration with existing grids improves.

A dozen or so countries already get very close to 100% of their electricity from renewable sources. Most have excellent hydro-electricity resources, like Bhutan or Paraguay, and also substantial geothermal resources that are easily exploitable, such as Iceland or New Zealand. Most countries don’t have such good hydro or geothermal opportunities, but many more countries do have massive potential to develop solar power and wind power.

It will make sense for some of the countries with the best solar and wind resources to develop very much more electricity than they need and export the surplus either in the form of hydrogen or as electricity via cable to neighbouring countries. A couple of years ago I posted a blog in which I cited Alan Finkel, Australia’s Chief Scientist, saying that his country should rapidly aim to develop 700% of its electricity from solar and wind power, to allow for the electrification of transport, heating, cooling, industrial processes and energy exports.

Which country will be the first to reach 100% of their total electricity demand from solar and wind, and when will they achieve that goal? And which country will reach that 700% goal first, and when?

My guess it will be a small country without a massive population or industrial base that passes both these milestones. In April I posted a blog titled ‘Floating wind comes to Ireland’ in which I described a huge wind development, which on its own will substantially increase the percentage of Ireland’s electricity supply that comes from wind. Ireland is certainly a contender, and as an independent country Scotland would be too.

It seems highly likely to me that a number of countries from the global south will leapfrog the more heavily industrialised global north. Uruguay and Chile are both already in these top fifteen countries and Chile has one of the best renewable energy resource bases in the World. Several African countries could emerge as leaders, and ones to look out for may be Morocco, Mauritania and Kenya, but it could be almost anywhere.

Sun rich countries such as Algeria, Tunisia and Libya currently produce zero percent of their electricity from the sun and wind according to Ember’s interactive map. They are all well placed geographically to generate vast solar export earnings while helping develop their own economies and also help the whole world decarbonise.

As to a time when either the 100% or the 700% milestones might be reached, all I want to say is that it could happen very much more quickly than many people think.