Russia: A Crumbling Empire?

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Protest in Tbilisi, against the Georgian government, and for a more democratic and European future.

I welcome the news that the International Criminal Court in The Hague has issued arrest warrants for Vladimir Putin and Maria Lvova-Belova. This initial charge is for the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. More charges ought to follow: for the unprovoked invasion of a peaceful country, for genocide and crimes against humanity. Many more Russian people are responsible for these horrors and need to face trail. It will no doubt take months or years for all this to unfold. Russia has not signed the Rome Statute so is not a member of the International Criminal Court, nor incidentally is USA, but the majority of countries in the World are. Any country claiming to be democratic and responsibly governed ought to be a member, but that is for another blog.

Today I want to focus on Russia. Rafael Behr wrote an interesting article in the Guardian about the situation in Russia. He stated ‘When the repressive state’s demand for ideological uniformity meets the human capacity for free thought, the result is terror but also absurdity. As the gap between official versions of the truth and reality widens, the central power insists on ever more grotesque levels of acquiescence. Passive obedience is no longer sufficient. Citizens must abase themselves with displays of loyalty.’  He continues: ‘The tone of some of the punditry on Kremlin propaganda channels is explicitly genocidal. This is a second front of the war, waged against the Russian conscience – an all-out assault on facts, evidence, reality.’ Most of the Russian population support the party line, as did most Germans in Nazi Germany. Opposition is mainly hidden, as people are cowered, in Russia now just as in Nazi Germany.

What we think of as Russia is a vast and diverse place. Away from the ethnic Russian heartlands of Muscovy resistance is brewing. Russia has always been an extremely centralized state, under Tsars, Bolsheviks, or Putin, the Imperial nature of the county has many continuities. As money and men are sucked out of these peripheral regions resentment is growing. In my book ‘System Change Now!’ I cited Kamil Galeev who predicts ‘National Divorce’, as Russia crumbles into a patchwork of very much smaller states. Sergej Sumlenny has just published a very interesting article reviewing some separatist movements within Russia itself, and Botakoz Kassymbekova writes about the importance of Russia acknowledging its past crimes in Chechnya.

It is in the independent countries that were once part of the USSR, which Putin still sees as part of his longed-for revival of the Russian Tsarist/Communist empire, that opposition to Russia is growing most openly. The photo at the top of this blog is of pro EU protestors in Tbilisi demonstrating against their government’s too close relations with Russia. Kazakhstan, Georgia, Moldova and many other countries of Central Asia, the Caucasus, and Eastern Europe are all showing more resistance to Russian domination, and are in various ways inspired by the spirit of Ukrainian resistance and the prospect of eventual membership of the EU and the prosperity, opportunities and democratic rights that membership confers. Perhaps Russia, or some of its constituent parts, may eventually join the EU, just as the UK, or some of its constituent parts, might.

Tomatoes: Economics & Ecology

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British supermarket salad section
EU supermarket salad section

The UK currently has shortages of tomatoes, cucumbers, lettuces and other salad crops. The government and BBC are pushing the line that these shortages are due to poor weather in Morocco and Spain. This has been a factor, but a very minor part of the reason for our shortages. The entire EU has an abundance of these salad crops, and even in Kherson on the frontline of the war in Ukraine has plenty. So: why the shortage here?

Brexit is largely to blame. Holland, which grows salad crops for export in heated greenhouses, has plenty, but Brexit red tape means Dutch lorry drivers, who often have to queue for up to 77 hours, are refusing to drive to the UK. We could grow our own but as the UK energy costs are somewhat higher than average EU energy prices it is often uneconomic to heat greenhouses here, and this is compounded by the shortage of agricultural workers now that Brexit has forced so many East Europeans to leave. Ukraine meanwhile has open access to the EU’s single market and so it is has tomatoes and the rest in plentiful supply.

We could of course re-structure our energy market to be more in line with the EU. That would make energy costs cheaper, but reduce corporate profits, and our government is firmly on the side of maximizing corporate profits, even if it means impoverishing UK citizens.

Traditionally we did not eat many out of season crops. Tomatoes, cucumbers and lettuces were mainly harvested in the summer and autumn. To have such crops in February is either done by bringing the produce from southern Europe or Morocco, or growing in the UK or Holland in heated greenhouses, any of which usually mean high carbon footprints.

It is possible, but almost never done, to grow tomatoes and salad crops in the UK in greenhouses that do not result in carbon emissions. The New Alchemy Institute pioneered greenhouses with very high thermal mass, and solar thermal panels way back in 1976 on Prince Edward Island in Canada. Now with cheap solar and wind power, we could add utilizing surplus wind energy to heat giant hot water stores under greenhouses. Technologically this is feasible. Iceland pioneered using geothermal heat to grow bananas, a much more heat demanding crop than tomatoes. Greenhouse technology has great potential to feed more of humanity, but it needs sensible governments that want to promote ecologically and economically sustainable practices. Our government is obsessed with the delusion of Brexit, nostalgia for empire, putting corporate profits over ordinary people, and cares not a jot for true sustainability.

James Rebanks, the author and regenerative farmer, tweeted: ‘Being a farmer in Britain right now is like being trapped in the back of stolen car driven at high speed by a driver who’s high on drugs and oblivious to the obstacles ahead… and all the time shouting absolute gibberish at you from the front seats’. Therese Coffey is currently the British Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, and she is certainly shouting absolute gibberish.

Oh, for a government that actually cared for the people and the planet, and a BBC that actually wanted to speak the truth!

Ukraine & the Defence of Democracy

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President Zelensky address the combined houses of Parliament

Yesterday President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the combined houses of Parliament before meeting King Charles and visiting Ukrainian tank crews training in Dorset. Last night he met Macron in France and today is in Brussels. This whistle-stop tour is all about securing tanks and planes to repeal the Russian invasion of his country. We, along with partners, should supply him with all the weapons he needs. It is vital that Ukraine defeats Russia, and that Putin and all his key supporters face trial for war crimes in The Hague, or death.

Many on the far left, and the far right, in UK, USA and Europe oppose this. They tend to see NATO expansion as a cause of war. They are utterly wrong. Most of the countries of Eastern Europe wanted a peaceful life: they never invaded their bigger neighbours, but have been repeatedly invaded by them. Finland and Sweden have spent decades trying to be neutral, but now Russian aggression has forced them to apply to join NATO.

Many countries, once they joined the European Union thought that they did not need large armies. Poland is a case in point. Russian media is full of talk of the next stage of the war being fought in Poland. They talk of it as a non-country, just as Stalin and Hitler did, suitable for annexation. Understandably, Poland is now purchasing huge quantities of weapons.

My book ‘System Change Now!’ was finished in April 2022, a couple of months after Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine. The book envisaged a more peaceful, ecologically sustainable, and socially just world with thousands of co-operating tiny democratic communities networked together. It envisaged much less military spending. That world is only possible once aggressive colonial empires such as Russia are no longer a threat.

I have become very interested in the many countries that have been invaded by the Russian Tsars, Bolsheviks, Stalin and Putin, and many also by Hitler’s Germany. They are showing great solidarity with Ukraine. In October I posted a blog about how Finland and Estonia have become two of the best governed countries, and Sanna Marin and Kaja Kallas two of the best leaders. Ukraine has made remarkable progress since the Euromaidan protests of November 2013, and Zelensky has emerged as a tremendous leader. Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech and Slovak Republics, Romania and Moldova are all emerging as key supporters of Ukraine. Many of the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia, which have long been under Russian domination, are expressing greater independence. The Kazakhs erecting ‘yurts of invincibility’ in Ukrainian cities offering tea, warmth and hospitality is an expression of support for Ukraine that has enraged the Kremlin.

In December I posted a blog, Understanding Ukraine, and saying how useful I found Timothy Snyder’s Yale lecture series. He also writes a blog which includes many excellent articles, including ‘Why the world needs Ukrainian victory’. Another academic I find helpful is Janne M Korhonen, from Aalto University in Finland. Here’s a long Twitter thread of his on democracy, war and peace and why small democracies need to stick together and oppose aggression. We in UK, USA and Western Europe have a duty to stick together with these relatively small independent democratic countries: our futures are deeply intertwined.