The local elections are over. The results are in. We’ve had a few days to read the analysis and reflect. What do they tell us?
The above graphic from the BBC sums up the results very nicely. Unfortunately the BBC coverage and analysis I found very disappointing, focusing as they usually do these days with both a very pro Brexit bias, and, as ever, seeing the election as a contest between Labour and the Tories. True Labour and the Tories are the biggest parties, and Labour did, just, gain more seats than any other party, but there are other and more interesting stories to be told.
Of the 4,404 seats contested across 150 councils which parties had the greatest percentage gains in terms of number of councillors, and why? By this measure the Green Party and Liberal Democrats did very well, with the Greens gaining 25.8% and the LibDems gaining 16.3%. Labour’s performance was pretty patchy and lacklustre at a gain of 3.4%. The Tories lost 2.4% of their councillors, which is a poor performance, but not as bad as it could have been had they not picked up so many former UKIP voters. The UKIP loss of 97.6% of their councillors must be one of the greatest annihilations of any political party in UK history.
If these local election results have anything to tell us about Brexit is that the public is rapidly turning against the whole process as a very bad idea. UKIP has collapsed and yet the Tories, supported by both the DUP and Labour are pushing ahead regardless. This is one factor why the most pro European parties are gaining ground. Clearly there are many other factors why people are turning to the Greens and LibDems, but the calamity of Brexit is certainly part of the picture. Their gains of 25.8% and 16.3% I find impressive and significant.
There is an extraordinary political paradox unfolding. The most passionately Unionist parties; UKIP, Tories, Labour and DUP are all in favour of Brexit, yet it will, in my view, almost inevitably lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom. The complexities Brexit presents regarding the border and the peace process in Northern Ireland seem unlikely to be solved any time soon. Scotland, like Northern Ireland voted against Brexit. The SNP, like the LibDems and Greens, is very strongly pro European. If Brexit does indeed go ahead then pressure will continue to grow for an ‘IndyRef2’, which would almost certainly lead to a win for Scottish independence from the UK. Yesterday there was a huge demonstration in Glasgow calling for independence.
After Brexit it seems probable that Scotland would gain independence. Northern Ireland would either join the Republic of Ireland, or possibly seek independence, strongly tied to the other parts of the British Isles still within the EU. So Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland would remain in the EU while England and Wales were outside, and increasingly fractured by the calamity of Brexit.
I, like an increasing number of people, think that Brexit will not happen. Public opinion has turned against it. Any kind of ratification referendum would now almost certainly be a landslide for remaining in the EU. Yet Labour and the Tories still seem dedicated to pursuing the wishes of UKIP, despite UKIP’s demise.